As for Balochistan, people are faring no better there either. By and large, Balochis are moderate Muslims but some groups do have links with terrorist groups in Afghanistan. Balochi grievances are that the Punjabi and Sindhi dominated army and government are interested in exploiting natural resources of the region all the while treating them as 3rd rate citizens.
Construction of Gwadar port, without any involvement or economic benefit to the locals, is the latest and just one of the items in a very long list of grievances that they hold against the Pakistani government. Balochis have been fighting a bloody war against the Pakistani establishment for a long time. Pakistani army has used everything in its arsenal ranging from heavy artillery, air strikes and covert missions to put down the rebellion, but the hardy Balochis have kept the resistance alive. However, the entry of Chinese in to the theater has changed the situation for worse.
As I explained earlier, Gwadar port is supposed to be an important point in the new energy route for Chinese and they've invested billions of dollars in it. Common sense dictates that construction of such a massive port, transport routes, pipeline will result in large scale employment of locals and generation of goodwill for the investors. But Chinese kind of screwed up on this one too by employing Chinese workers and engineers for construction as well as daily operations of the port. Instead of helping locals by the creation of employment opportunities, Chinese actions, in the area have in fact caused the same repercussions as in PoK.
Skirmishes between the Chinese and Balochis have already started in earnest. One of the latest causes of conflict is the oil-gas pipeline that Chinese are constructing from Gwadar to China through POK. Balochis forced work on the pipeline to be halted when they came to know that it'll pass through the pastures and native village of a leader of one of the most powerful nationalist Baloch leaders, Gaffar Khan of Baloch Nationalist Liberation Front. Negotiations between Chinese and Khan broke down over the compensation being offered by Chinese. Pakistanis intervened in their usual high-handed manner by arresting another senior leader and torturing him in custody.
Enraged by this, the Balochis responded by ambushing the army convoys passing through the area and destroying any Chinese construction vehicle and material they could lay their hands on. Unfortunately, the situation was exacerbated when Chinese alleged that two of their unarmed workers died in the attack. A joint Pakistani and Chinese assault force then attacked 3 villages killing at least 57 people, 21 of them women and destroying numerous houses. Next day, son and pregnant daughter-in-law of Khan went missing while on en-route to her parent's house. Their badly burned bodies were found two days later around two km off the road. Nobody took responsibility, but that incident closed the lid on any possible reconciliation effort.
Since then, a savage fight has been going on between the Balochis and the Paki-Chinese army with the latter using helicopter gunships and heavy artillery to completely raze down entire villages. Balochis have suffered high causalities, but they've managed to halt all construction work and supply lines to the Gwadar port through most of the area.
This conflict has forced Chinese to look for an alternate route. The first alternative, follows the coastal highway connecting Gwadar to Karachi, then roughly follows either Indus or General Trunk Highway upto Islamabad and from there to occupied Kashmir. But this alternate route is much closer to the Indo-Pak border and within our easy striking distance. Further, they have already invested billions in mapping and construction of the route through Balochistan. Such a drastic change of plans, at this time, will not only increase the operational cost of the project but also cause unacceptable delay.
For the moment, they are trying their level best to find a way out in Balochistan, but I doubt if the Balochis will oblige. They know that even if they manage to quell the rebellion, nothing short of genocide and complete ethnic cleansing will ensure safety of their route from sabotage in future. All these facts are explained in detail with maps in the reports that I've placed in front of you. You're welcome to ask any questions
HM was first, “With billions of dollars that they have at their disposal, what stops the Chinese from just buying off the locals in Balochistan and POK and prevent all this bloodshed and delay? “
“If Chinese have billions of dollars, US can print trillions even at the cost of damage to its economy that such an action might bring. In case of POK, Chinese have displaced people from dozens of mountainous villages where land suitable for farming and rearing cattle is at a premium and constructed their colonies and roads. The people who have lost their lands have nowhere to go and make a living outside POK as they don't have full rights as other Pakistanis. Even those who haven't lost their lands directly have suffered due to pollution, land-slides, flooding among other side-effects brought upon by indiscriminate Chinese activity in a fragile eco-system.
As for Balochistan, things could've been much better if Pakistani army officers were kept out of the compensation process. Balochis alleged that army siphoned off a lion’s share of the money that was given by the Chinese and they were left with nothing. When Chinese attempted to talk directly, Pakis brought in their H & D (Honour and Dignity) issue in to play and also screwed up everything by picking up needless fights. Same thing happened in POK too.”
PM asked the next question, “Is Chinese presence in Balochistan and POK in anyway related to the attack on the PPP rally? “
“I only have a theory sir.” Angad replied hesitatingly.
“Let’s hear it!”
“Pakistanis have been moving slowly on the Gwadar port route due to US pressure on Beg and the civilian government. The US has been sponsoring psy-ops for quite some time against the project by questioning whether anybody except the army and its stooges will gain anything out of this, covertly of course. Beg regime was already under enormous domestic and international pressure due to corruption charges and this whisper campaign forced him to tow the US line. Work on the Balochistan route was halted many times citing environment clearances, land ownership issues and so on much to the annoyance of Chinese.
Although it seems kind of far-fetched, one of the quickest ways to get the work completed as soon as possible is to have their own puppet in control instead of a US controlled one. For Chinese, there is no one better than General Asgar for this job. They've been propping him up for quite some time now, as a counter to US influence. They planned to use him to push their agenda after Beg stepped down, but Beg's three year extension put a spanner to their plans. Chinese wouldn't let their investment go down the drain and will do anything within their ability to retain their influence and activate that route. They don't see it as an option but a vital necessity. They'll do anything to weaken Beg and install their own man. This near fatal attack on Naqvi is a big blow to the public moral and image of army. Something that General Asgar and Chinese really want.”
“Why don't Chinese try buying off Beg instead of playing such dangerous games? “ Home minister inquired.
“Well, I don't think that they didn't try that. We know for a fact that two senior PLA generals visited Beg many times over that last two years, ostensibly for the same purpose you mentioned and also to pressurise him to stop the training and infiltration of ethnic Uighur militants into XinJiang. But Beg knows too well that he and PPP government can't last a day without US support.
As for the Uighur militant issue, he is powerless to oblige China without messing up US plans. It's not like reign of Musharraf when Pakis were able to use terrorists for their own means even when pretending to fight them in exchange for money and military aid. Americans have wisened up to the duplicity and perfidy of Pakis and have kept everything on a tight leash. They want to get out of Af-Pak as soon as possible and allowing Chinese controlled Asgar to rule Pakistan will make a graceful exit impossible for them.”
“So it seems like US and China are fighting a proxy war, each one using Pakistanis as pawns. “, PM said with a wry smile.
“But not without serious cons
equences for us.” Defence minister interjected. “A US-China battle ground in our nuclear armed neighbour is a nightmare. But I don't think any one of the two will be foolish enough to destabilise the country, it being in tatters as it already is.”
“Agreed. I don't think that either the US or China will enter into direct conflict with each other. But their cat-and mouse games are sure to cause serious unrest. It could even result in a civil war. I don't want to even contemplate that.” DM said with a shudder.
PM asked Angad, “Why has Asgar not tried to initiate a coup against Beg till now? Or did Beg try to defang Asgar? “
“It sure seems like a quick fix, but both are serving army men and any such move by either of the two will surely cause division within the army and the likelihood of a civil war. With nukes in the picture, nobody knows the consequences. Even without nukes, it's a lose-lose condition for both, unless something unexpected happens, “Angad replied
“Unexpected like ?”
Angad paused for a moment before speaking, “Like Beg willingly hands over the reins to Asgar in exchange for a guaranteed safe exit and large sum of money. Or Asgar dies, in that case there is nobody senior enough in Paki army hierarchy that Chinese control to challenge Beg. But Asgar has good contacts with many Islamist terrorist organisations and most worryingly with army wing in charge of the nukes from his pre-9/11 days.
Beg can also postpone the elections, impose martial law, and cut the wings of Asgar by arresting him or by other means. On the other hand, if Beg dies, power is still in hands of civilian government and they can demote or dismiss Asgar. But I seriously doubt that Asgar and his Chinese allies will let that happen.”
“So, what does that mean for us?”
“In the case of a civil war, anything from terrorist strikes, to a full blown war to deflect any attention. Threat of a nuclear attack blamed on a rogue commander or on terrorists is very likely. Chinese will surely try to take advantage of the situation.”
“A stable Pakistan is in our interests after all!” DM remarked bitterly.
“I dare say it's not. If we play our cards right, we can use the instability in Pakistan to cut China down to size as well as rid ourselves of the shackles of terrorism and nuclear blackmail that these two threaten us with. “Angad responded eagerly to an approving nod from the army chief, General Zoravar Singh.
“Interesting” DM replied. “What are our options?”
“I believe our service chiefs already have a plan that they can explain much better than me “
PM turned to the three chiefs who so far had been listening to every word intently and spoke, “Let’s hear it gentlemen.”
All three chiefs shared glances with each other and nodded a silent agreement. General Zoravar Singh leaned forward on his chair and began explaining their battle plans to a fully attentive audience.
10:00 Hours
27 Oct 2012
Central Market
Karachi, Pakistan
Mohammed Shafiq was in a bad mood when he stopped his car in front of his 25 years old eatery in Central Market, one of the busiest in Karachi. He came to the city when he was barely 13 years old, after running away from his home in Multan. He did various jobs for 11 years and somehow scraped up enough money to start his own shop in Central Market. Over the years he managed to establish a reputation of serving good food at affordable prices. Most of his customers were local shopkeepers and their employees who bought their breakfast and lunch from him daily.
His daily commute of 20 minutes to his shop today took him 3 hours due to the almost curfew like security measures in place. Although Pakistanis were used to terrorist attacks and the subsequent tight security regime that invariably followed such attacks, the measures deployed today were extreme by even Paki standards. Every occupant of every vehicle was told to disembark and then body-searched in addition to metal-detector and dog sniffer checks. This delay had cost him earnings he made every morning that amounted to almost half of his daily income every day. He barked at Shahid, the eighteen year old helper who was dozing in front of the shop, to get the keys and open the shutters while he searched for a place to park his car. A delay of three hours meant that most of the already scarce parking spaces were already full and he had to park his car at a considerable distance from his usual place near the shop. Cursing everybody in general for his troubles he took out a cigarette and started walking towards his shop. His unpleasant mood was slightly softened at the sight of a few regulars starting to assemble in anticipation of an early lunch or a late breakfast.
Shafiq's attention was diverted by sound of a pickup truck being rashly driven that passed him by with only inches to spare. He swore loudly cursing the driver and his relatives to hell and worse. His rant was suddenly interrupted by the sight of that truck suddenly changing its direction towards the small crowd in front of his shop. Before his horrified eyes the truck ran over 3 people and stopped after hitting the wall of his shop. He shouted at the people around for help and starting running towards the scene of accident. He was still twenty meters away when the truck exploded with a loud bang and caught fire. Shafiq along with many other people was thrown back many meters by the force of the blast, wounded grievously. Fire from the truck soon reached the LPG cylinders in the eatery which exploded spreading the fire. Eight fire brigade trucks took 4 hours to extinguish the blaze which turned more than half of Karachi's most crowded market into ashes, killed thirty seven people, and wounded many more.