“Smart move on their part, obviously. It could solve a lot of their food supply problems, particularly for—truck-farm stuff, I guess, tomatoes, onions, that sort of thing.”
“Maybe. You might also note that this sort of farming is manpower-intensive but not machinery-intensive. What about the demographic aspect of the move?”
Toland blinked. There was a tendency in the U.S. Navy to assume that since they made their living by charging into machine-gun fire, Marines were dumb. “Most of the kokolzniki are relatively old folks. The median age is in the late forties, early fifties. So most of the private plots are managed by the older people, while the mechanized work, like driving the combines and trucks—”
“Which pays a hell of a lot better.”
“—is done by the younger workers. You’re telling me that this way they can increase some food production without the younger men . . . of military service age.”
“One way to look at it,” Lowe said. “Politically it’s dynamite. You can’t take away things people already have. Back in the early sixties, a rumor—wasn’t even true—got started to the effect that Khrushchev was going to reduce or eliminate the private plots those poor bastards get. There was hell to pay! I was in the language school at Monterey then, and I remember the Russian papers that came through the language school. They spent weeks denying the story. Those private plots are the most productive sector of their agricultural system. Less than two percent of their arable land, it produces about half of their fruit and potatoes, more than a third of their eggs, vegetables, and meat. Hell, it’s the only part of the damned agricultural system that works. The bigshots over there have known for years that by doing this they could solve their food shortage problems, and still they haven’t done it for political reasons. They couldn’t run the risk of State sponsorship for a whole new generation of kulaks. Until now. But it appears they’ve done it without making a formal announcement. And it just so happens that they’re increasing their military readiness at the same time. I never believe in coincidences, even when I’m a dumb line officer running across a beach.”
Lowe’s uniform blouse hung in the corner. Toland sipped at his coffee and surveyed its four rows of decorations. There were three repeat pips on his Vietnam service ribbon. And a Navy Cross. Dressed in the olive-green sweater affected by Marine officers, Lowe was not a big man, and his Midwest accent gave evidence of a relaxed, almost bored outlook on life. But his brown eyes said something else entirely. Colonel Lowe was thinking along Toland’s lines already, and he was not the least happy about it.
“Chuck, if they are really preparing for some action—action on a large scale, they just can’t mess with a few colonels. Something else will start showing up. They’ll have to do some work at the bottom, too.”
“Yeah, that’s the next thing we have to look for. I sent a request into DIA yesterday. From now on, when Red Star comes out, the attaché in Moscow will send a photo-facsimile to us via satellite. If they start doing that, it’ll sure as hell turn up in Kraznaya Zvesda. Bob, I think you’ve opened a very interesting can of worms, and you’re not going to be alone examining it.”
Toland finished his coffee. The Soviets had taken an entire class of fleet ballistic missile submarines out of service. They were conducting arms talks in Vienna. They were buying grain from America and Canada under surprisingly favorable terms, even allowing American hulls to handle 20 percent of the cargo. How did this jibe with the signs he had seen? Logically it didn’t, except in one specific case—and that wasn’t possible. Was it?
SHPOLA, THE UKRAINE
The crashing sound of the 125mm tank gun was enough to strip the hair off your head, Alekseyev thought, but after five hours of running this exercise, it came through his ear protectors as a dull ringing sound. This morning the ground had been covered with grass and dotted with new saplings, but now it was a uniform wasteland of mud, marked only with the tread marks of T-80 main battle tanks and BMP armored infantry fighting vehicles. Three times the regiment had run this exercise, simulating a frontal assault of tanks and mounted infantry against an enemy of equal strength. Ninety mobile guns had supplied fire support, along with a battery of rocket launchers. Three times.
Alekseyev turned, removing his helmet and earmuffs to look at the regimental commander. “A Guards regiment, eh, Comrade Colonel? Elite soldiers of the Red Army? These tit-sucking children couldn’t guard a Turkish whorehouse, much less do anything worthwhile inside of it! And what have you been doing for the past four years commanding this rolling circus, Comrade Colonel? You have learned to kill your whole command three times! Your artillery observers are not located properly. Your tanks and infantry carriers still can’t coordinate their movements, and your tank gunners can’t find targets three meters high! If that had been a NATO force holding that ridge, you and your command would be dead!” Alekseyev examined the colonel’s face. His demeanor was changing from red-fear to white-anger. Good. “The loss of these people is no great penalty for the State, but that is valuable equipment, burning valuable fuel, shooting valuable ordnance, and taking up my valuable time! Comrade Colonel, I must leave you now. First I will throw up. Then I will fly to my command post. I will be back. When I come back, we will run this exercise again. Your men will perform properly, Comrade Colonel, or you will spend the rest of your miserable life counting trees!”
Alekseyev stomped off, not even acknowledging the colonel’s salute. His adjutant, a full colonel of tank troops, held open the door and got in behind his boss.
“Shaping up rather well, eh?” Alekseyev asked.
“Not well enough, but there has been progress,” the colonel allowed. “They have only another six weeks before they have to start moving west.”
It was the wrong thing to say. Alekseyev had spent two weeks chivvying this division toward combat readiness, only to learn the day before that it had been allocated to Germany instead of toward his own as-yet incomplete plan to descend into Iraq and Iran. Already four divisions—all of his elite Guards tank units—had been taken away, and each change in CINC-Southwest’s order of battle forced him to restructure his own plan for the Gulf. An endless circle. He was being forced to select less-ready units, forcing Alekseyev to devote more time to unit training and less time to the plan that had to be completed in another two weeks.
“Those men are going to have a very busy six weeks. What about the commander?” the colonel asked.
Alekseyev shrugged. “He’s been in this job too long. Forty-five is too old for this kind of command, and he reads his fucking parade manuals too much instead of going out in the field. But a good man. Too good to be sent counting trees.” Alekseyev chuckled heavily. It was a Russian saying that dated back to the czars. People exiled to Siberia were said to have nothing to do but count trees. Another of the things Lenin had changed. Now people in the Gulag had plenty to do. “The last two times they did well enough to succeed, I think. This regiment will be ready, along with the whole division.”
USS PHARRIS
“Bridge, sonar: we have a contact bearing zero-nine-four!” announced a voice on the bulkhead-mounted speaker. Commander Morris turned in his elevated swivel chair to watch his officer of the deck respond.
The OOD trained his binoculars to the direction of the contact. There was nothing there: “Bearing is clear.”
Morris got up from his chair. “Set Condition 1-AS.”
“Aye aye. Battle Stations,” the OOD acknowledged the order. The boatswain’s-mate-of-the-watch walked to the announcing system, and blew a three-note whistle on his bosun’s pipe into the speaker. “General Quarters, General Quarters, all hands man your battle stations for antisubmarine warfare.” The alarm gong came next, and a quiet forenoon watch ended.
Morris went aft, down the ladder to the Combat Information Center, or CIC. His executive officer would take the conn at the bridge, allowing the captain to control the ship’s weapons and sensors from her tactical nerve center. All over the ship, men were running
to stations. Watertight doors and hatches were dropped into place and dogged down to give the ship full watertight integrity. Damage-control parties donned emergency equipment. It took just over four minutes. Getting better, Morris noted as the “manned and ready” calls were relayed to him by the CIC talker. Since leaving Norfolk four days before, Pharris was averaging three GQ calls per day, as ordered by Commander, Naval Surface Forces, Atlantic. No one had confirmed it, but Morris figured that his friend’s information had kicked over an anthill. His training routines had been doubled, and the orders for the increase of activity were classified as high as anything he had ever seen. More remarkably, the increased training tempos would interfere with maintenance scheduling, something not lightly set aside.
“All stations report manned and ready!” the talker finally announced. “Condition Zebra set throughout the ship.”
“Very well,” the tactical action officer acknowledged.
“Report, mister,” Morris ordered.
“Sir, the navigation and air-search radars are in stand-by and the sonar is in passive mode,” replied the TAO. “Contact looks like a snorkeling submarine. Came in clear all at once. We’ve got a target-motion-analysis track going. His bearing is changing fore-to-aft, and pretty fast, too. A little soon to be sure, but it’s shaping up like he’s on a reciprocal heading, probably no more than ten miles out.”
“Contact report off to Norfolk yet?”
“Waiting for your say-so.”
“Very well. Let’s see how well we can run a hold-down exercise, mister.”
Within fifteen minutes, Pharris’s helicopter was dropping sonobuoys on the submarine, and the frigate was lashing it with her powerful active sonar. They wouldn’t stop until the Soviet submarine admitted defeat by coming back to schnorkeling depth—or until he evaded the frigate, which would put a large black mark in Morris’s copybook. The objective of this nonlethal exercise was nasty enough: to break the submarine captain’s confidence in his vessel, his crew, and himself.
USS CHICAGO
They were a thousand miles offshore, heading northeast at twenty-five knots. The crew was decidedly unhappy, though they’d all been through this before. What should have been a three-week layover at Norfolk had been cut short at eight days, a bitter pill after a long first cruise. Trips and vacations had been interrupted, and some minor maintenance work supposed to have been done by shoreside technicians was now being done round the clock by her own crew. McCafferty had announced his sealed orders to the crew two hours after diving: conduct two weeks of intensive tracking and torpedo drills, then proceed to the Barents Sea for further intelligence gathering. It was important, he told them. They’d heard that one before, too.
7
Initial Observations
NORFOLK, VIRGINIA
Toland hoped his uniform was properly arranged. It was 0630 on a Wednesday morning, and he’d been up since four rehearsing his presentation, and cursing CINCLANT for an early-riser who probably wanted to get in a round of golf that afternoon. He would spend the afternoon as he had for several weeks, sifting through endless intel documents and copies of Soviet publications in the Intentions cubbyhole half a building away.
The Flag Officers Briefing Room seemed a different world from the rest of the tawdry building, but that was hardly a surprise. Admirals liked their comforts. Bob made a quick trip to the nearby head to eliminate a distraction caused by too much wake-up coffee. By the time he came back, the flag officers were filing in. They exchanged greetings, but there were no jokes, none of the banter one would expect this early in the morning. The officers selected their leather seats by order of rank. Those few who smoked had ashtrays. Each had a note pad. Stewards brought in several pots of coffee, cream, and sugar on silver trays, then withdrew. The cups were already in place. Each officer poured himself a cup as part of the morning ritual. CINCLANT nodded to Toland.
“Good morning, gentlemen. Approximately a month ago, four colonels in the Soviet Army, all regimental commanders in mechanized divisions, were court-martialed and executed for falsifying data on their unit training and readiness reports,” Toland began, explaining the significance of this.
“Earlier this week Kraznaya Zvesda, ‘Red Star,’ the daily newspaper of the entire Soviet military, publicized the execution of a number of privates in the Soviet Army. All but two were in the final six months of their enlistment period, and all were charged with disobeying the orders of their sergeants. Why is this significant?
“The Russian Army has long been known for its tough discipline, but as with many aspects of the Soviet Union, not everything is as it seems. A sergeant in the Soviet Army is not a professional soldier as is the case in most armies. He is a conscript, just like the privates, selected early in his enlistment term for special training due to his intelligence, political reliability, or perceived leadership ability. He is sent to a tough six-month course to make him an instant sergeant, then returned to his operational unit. In fact he has about as little practical experience as his subordinates, and his superior knowledge of tactics and weapons-use is a matter of increments rather than the more dramatic differences between sergeants and new recruits in Western forces.
“Because of this, the real pecking order in Soviet ground formations does not necessarily derive from rank, but from time in service. The Soviets induct their troops twice a year, in December and June. With the usual two-year term of service, we see that there are four ‘classes’ in any formation: the lowest class is in its first six-month period and the highest is in its fourth. The young men who have the actual status in a Soviet rifle company are those in their final six-month term. They typically demand and get the best—or at least the most—food, uniforms, and work details. And they typically obviate the authority of the company NCOs. In fact, orders come directly from the officers, not the platoon and squad sergeants, and are usually carried out with little regard to what we consider conventional military discipline at the sub-officer level. As you can imagine, this places an enormous strain on the junior officers, and in many ways forces the officers to live with some things that they clearly do not and cannot like.”
“You’re saying that their military formations operate under the principle of organized anarchy,” observed the commander of Strike Fleet Atlantic. “Their Navy sure as hell doesn’t.”
“That is true, sir. As we know, their seamen are in for three years instead of two, and their situation, while similar, has many differences from that of the Soviet Army. And it would seem that this situation is ending in the Soviet Army as well, that sub-unit discipline is being quickly and vigorously reestablished.”
“Just how many privates got themselves popped?” asked the general commanding 2nd Marine Division.
“Eleven, sir, listed by name and unit. That information is in your handout. Most were in their ‘fourth class,’ meaning the last six months of their enlistment period.”
“Did the article you read make general conclusions?” CINCLANT asked.
“No, Admiral. There is an unwritten rule in Soviet publications, both military and civilian, that you can criticize, but not generalize. What that means is that individual screwups can be identified and castigated at length, but for political reasons it is unacceptable to make general criticisms applying to a whole institution. You see, a critique that pointed to an all-pervasive condition would ipso facto critique Soviet society as a whole, and thereby the Communist Party, which oversees every aspect of Soviet life. It is a thin, but to them a philosophically important, distinction. In fact, when individual malefactors are named, the system as a whole is being criticized, but in a politically acceptable way. This article is a signal to every officer, NCO, and private soldier in the Soviet military: the times, they are a changin’. The question we’ve been asking over in Intentions is, Why?
“It would appear that this is not an isolated case of changing times.” Toland flipped on an overhead projector and set a view graph in place. “Within the Soviet Navy, surface-to-
surface missile live-fires are up seventy percent from last year, not quite an all-time high, but as you can see from this graph, pretty close to it. Submarine deployments, mainly those for diesel subs, are down, and intelligence reports tell us that an unusually high number of submarines are in the yards for what appears to be routine but unscheduled maintenance. We have reason to believe that this situation is connected with a nationwide shortage of lead-acid batteries. It appears likely that all Soviet submarines are undergoing battery replacement, and that regular battery production is being redirected to militarily important segments of the Soviet economy.
“We have also noted higher levels of activity by Soviet naval surface forces, naval aviation units and other long-range aircraft formations, again with increased weapons exercises. Finally, there has been an increase in the time-away-from-port days of Soviet surface combatants. Although this number represents a small increase, operational patterns are different from what we’ve become accustomed to. Instead of sailing from one point to another and just dropping the hook, their surface combatants appear to be running more realistic exercises. They’ve done this before, but never without announcing it.
“So what we are seeing in the Soviet Navy is an extensive stand-down accompanied by increasing tempos in the actual exercises that are being run. Matched with what we’re seeing in the Soviet Army and Air Force, it appears that their military readiness is being increased across the board. At the same time that they are proposing reductions in strategic nuclear weapons, their conventional forces are rapidly improving their ability to engage in combat operations. We in Intentions regard this combination of factors as potentially dangerous.”