* * *
The conference table in the White House Situation Room was less than half-occupied, the members of the President’s inner circle meeting to plan out the Administration’s response to the ongoing problems – and there were so many of them.
The political fallout from the Vice-President’s affair and hurried resignation was as yet unclear, Cavanagh able to cope with the contempt of the media, knowing that they would soon find someone else to chastise. Of more concern were public perceptions and the misgivings of his own Party, the likelihood of the Democrats being decimated in the Midterms seemingly increasing by the hour.
The President started the discussion with the South China Sea, hoping that Thorn could somehow negate the embarrassment of Irwin’s trip to Hanoi. Louisa Marcelo was fast becoming a worldwide celebrity, her face on every news broadcast, her campaign against the Chinese militarisation of little-known reefs a hundred miles from nowhere catching the American public’s imagination. The United Nations Security Council had duly discussed and prevaricated with nothing agreed – certainly not the condemnation of China that the Philippines and Vietnam had demanded. Where the South China Sea was concerned, China was always likely to veto any significant or meaningful resolution, its own selfish interests paramount – but then the same could be said for any of the five permanent members.
“No-one’s interested in compromise,” Thorn announced bluntly. “China believes right is on their side, and the rest want to see how events unfold over the next few days. It all comes down to Louisa Marcelo, and who will back down first. Personally, I can’t see it being China; they’ve possibly got far more to lose.”
“Just to be clear,” Cavanagh queried, “are we sure there’s no possibility of a military confrontation?” He looked to Thorn, but it was the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (CJCS), Admiral Wade Adams who answered.
“We can’t completely rule it out, Sir; but it seems highly unlikely. At worst, we’d be looking at a couple of patrol boats facing off against each other. Taiwan and Vietnam are the most military-minded, but I doubt either will risk a shooting match with China. More of a problem is China itself: one day soon they may become arrogant enough to disrupt the shipping lanes around the Paracel or Spratly Islands. Then their willingness to go to war will need to be tested.”
That would the job of the Seventh Fleet, thought Cavanagh to himself. Tensions between China and the United Sates over the region had been high for well over a decade and it had been accepted for some time that a battle for supremacy was inevitable. Just not on my watch, prayed Cavanagh silently.
“Under the circumstances,” Thorn interjected, “the decision to transfer the USS Milius was sensible – personally, I’m more concerned with what China is up to than North Korea.”
Adams nodded his agreement, as did Amy Pittman, Cavanagh pleased that at least one of his decisions had proved judicious.
“And what of North Korea?” the President muttered with a sigh. “We’re two days into Dragon Shield – can I relax or are they still going to obliterate Japan?” It was said with a hint of a smile, but there was also a certain edge to his tone. Problems were mounting rapidly and he could well do without North Korea’s regular belligerence.
“They’ve been relatively quiet, Mr President,” confirmed the Secretary of Defence seated to Cavanagh’s left. “They’ve threatened; we’ve ignored it – everyone’s played by the rules and we can sit back and wait for the next pointless exchange.” Bob Deangelo was a long-time associate of Cavanagh’s and more of a friend than just a colleague, yet closer to the Secretary of State in terms of being a hawk.
So far, the update was going as well as Cavanagh could have hoped and the only other external concern was Russia. President Golubeva now seemed fully in control of Moscow, with no reports of further military deployments, one unanswered question being the precise status of General Morozov. Domestic issues remained complex, Cavanagh somehow needing to restore public faith in his Administration: if he could do that before Election Day on the 8th, then it would clearly be a miracle.
“Paul, I know you have a lot to discuss,” said Cavanagh, turning to Jensen. “Just a rough summary will be fine for now.”
Jensen checked the notes in front of him: summary or not, it was difficult to know quite where to start. Facts first…
“The WikiLeaks report into Congress is basically a very clever reinterpretation of the actual data, with each allegation needing to be checked against the original invoice or expense claim. That is taking time as several of the original computer files seem to have become corrupted – we’re still investigating as to exactly how and who had access. I understand that it will be another forty-eight hours before a definitive list of disbursements is available, but it’s looking as if most of the accusations are either exaggerated or simply false. Unfortunately, as with the other political embarrassments that have suddenly surfaced over the past few weeks, the damage has already been done.”
The deliberate revelations – true and untrue – as to political misdeeds were a trend it was now impossible to ignore; yet if Jensen was to convince the others as to the why, he needed to prepare the groundwork carefully first.
Jensen continued, “Carl Irwin’s house at Lake Seneca was definitely a set-up, the camera specifically designed to bypass security checks. Somehow Irwin was persuaded that the house was ideal for his needs, presumably by one of the women. They both passed the routine security assessments and the FBI is planning to interview them tomorrow. Under the circumstances, it’s likely such action will be misinterpreted as unnecessary, even malicious – to most people’s eyes, the women’s only crime is to be seduced by an older married man.”
The former Vice-President had already suffered the added ignominy of being interviewed by the FBI, his uncooperative attitude making the agency’s task all the more difficult. In a few short hours, Irwin had now lost his wife, his job, his career, as well as his two lovers, and he had needed to take it out on someone – the FBI just happened to be first in the firing line.
Jensen resumed his commentary, moving on to the Office on Naval Intelligence. “Paige Hanson appears to have been a dedicated professional, someone who was immensely proud to be American; politically knowledgeable, her views were right-wing but by no means extreme. It seems likely that she was working under orders, not from Russia or even Pat McDowell, but someone much closer to the ONI. I cannot believe it was her head of section, Captain Nolan, and we need to look higher up the chain of command.”
Jensen paused, anticipating some comment from Thorn or Pittman. When there was none, he quickly pressed on.
“We assume that Evgeny Sukhov’s involvement with McDowell is somehow also connected to recent events in Moscow. Sukhov was pictured beside Golubeva yesterday and is obviously still in favour, unlike General Morozov. The General’s whereabouts remain unclear: his family home in Moscow is off limits and several of his close associates have gone missing – possibly arrested, possibly in hiding. If Morozov is still alive there remains the potential for a renewed power struggle; there is certainly evidence to suggest that several units of the 20th Guards Army have been forcibly confined to barracks. Sukhov could well be working with McDowell in order to divert China’s attention away from Russia’s internal problems. Since coming to power, Golubeva has had a lukewarm relationship with Beijing; there is also concern that China might try to use Moscow’s instability to renew various territorial claims in the Far East.”
Jensen paused momentarily, his understanding of how such external events tied in with the increasing domestic crisis, still far from perfect. “At present there is still nothing to link McDowell with the murders in Mississippi, or indeed any of the other political indiscretions. However, it seems likely that he is the one pulling the strings. The search for him is ongoing, our focus the Eastern Seaboard; but apart from one probable sighting near Arlington, there’s been nothing. In truth, he could be anywhere. Personally, I would bet he’s not that
far from Washington.”
Jensen lapsed into silence, and it was left to the President to ask the obvious. “Your conclusions, Paul; although I think we all have some idea what they might be.”
Jensen glanced around the table, sensing that the President had already discussed various possibilities with Admiral Adams and Bob Deangelo.
“On the face of it,” said Jensen carefully picking his words, “we have two distinct problems: potential conflict in the South China Sea and a series of embarrassing revelations at home. If Pat McDowell is involved in both, then events here might be nothing more than a diversion, something to keep our main focus away from what is happening elsewhere. Maybe Russia hopes that we will consequently stumble into a war with China. With Sukhov acting as a go-between, Russia could easily provide McDowell with the necessary finance and essential intelligence.”
Cavanagh seemed to be nodding in agreement but Jensen hadn’t yet finished, having something rather more controversial to propose.
“Unfortunately,” continued Jensen, now talking directly to the President. “I am convinced that there is far more at stake here than the reputation of Carl Irwin and various Members of Congress. Bearing in mind Sukhov’s involvement and McDowell’s history with August 14, then another possibility exists; namely that McDowell is attempting to create the ideal conditions for a coup d’état.”
Jensen’s statement was greeted with a stunned silence, and he felt the need to offer more in the way of justification. “The drip-feeding of political scandals to an already sceptical public, combined with widespread frustration over America’s foreign policy and thus her standing in the world, reveals a concerted effort to undermine people’s faith in the President and this Administration. The Republican Party has suffered similarly, and this is not just aimed at one political group but at the very fabric of U.S. democracy.”
Jensen knew he sounded pompous but the message was far more important than its delivery. The evidence to back up his theory could be read in any paper and seen on any news channel; it was just surprising the media hadn’t already recognised the signs – or maybe they couldn’t believe it either.
Thorn was the first to respond. “A coup,” he said, carefully choosing his words, “doesn’t just happen because a certain set of conditions have been satisfied. It needs people with power – military or political – to have the ambition to risk everything. Golubeva and her clique got lucky a year ago but the United States is not Russia; we have a strong democratic tradition and an inbred hatred for dictators.”
“The risks are obviously significant,” Jensen responded, “but then so are the rewards. America thrives on ambition and it would be unwise for us to sit back and do nothing.”
Cavanagh held up his hand to stop Thorn from some angry retort. He didn’t want to get bogged down in philosophical arguments, far more concerned by the reality of what Jensen was suggesting. “Military or political, Paul? And is this just conjecture, or do you have something more substantial to back it up? A few names would at least give us an idea of what we’re up against and how seriously to take it.”
Jensen shook his head, “There’s no definitive evidence to support my premise, other than this perfect storm of events. And I’m afraid I can’t even give you a single name, far less a choice.” He was beginning to feel uncomfortable: he couldn’t guarantee that a potential coup leader wasn’t sitting across the table from him, and he was also questioning the loyalty of the hundreds of thousands of men and women in America’s military, almost a slap in the face to Admiral Adams.
President Cavanagh recognised Jensen’s concerns, even though he wasn’t convinced by them. Their discussions continued, Jensen working hard to persuade the inner cabinet that his fears had merit and shouldn’t simply be ignored. The obvious next step would be for Jensen to widen his investigation to include senior Members of Congress and America’s military – a move Cavanagh refused point-blank to sanction. The President had no wish to be judged by his peers as a paranoid tyrant who trusted no-one but himself, and he still believed that McDowell was merely a diversion, Russia’s real plans yet to be revealed.
Cavanagh was minded to do nothing and wait to see if Jensen could bring him something more persuasive. Once the Midterm elections were over he could always act more robustly, but until then he had no wish to polygraph every potential opponent, whether real or imaginary.