Erik had a plan. The odds of Debra discovering this plan were 74%. 1/4 chance of an easy escape.
So Erik had made sub-plans, and alternate plans, and sub-alternate plans.
Each plan had varying degrees of risk, both to the general and to the soldiers.
There had been an 89% chance that if Alkorn was captured he would be taken to the Mage Quarter. It was the safest location, once Alkorn arrived, and one of the easiest to get to from the gate they had approached. That's why he'd chosen it.
There had only been a 15% chance that Alkorn would be transported in an open wagon. This was a stroke of luck, and would mean fewer deaths.
Erik had placed scouts around the city when Alkorn had first returned. They had been a little out of place when they first arrived, but were trained, and quickly adjusted to their new environment. Several had disguised themselves as beggars, others had taken up conveniently situated lovers, while others simply stayed hidden on rooftops. Their regular reports gave Erik a clear view of the city.
He had not considered using his own spies within the city. Spies were untrustworthy for the very reason they were useful - they liked to tell secrets. Instead, the scouts had done their work well, and now he knew exactly where Alkorn was.
They had less than half a bell before the general would be unreachable, but this too was part of the plan. Erik saw the guards relax as they passed the final checkpoint. They had arrived, more or less, and believed themselves safe.
The two soldiers driving Alkorn's wagon died first, arrows through their throats to silence any potential screams. There were six more soldiers ahead, and six behind, all on foot and loosely disguised. The ones behind took a moment to realize what had happened, then alerted their companions. By the time they reached the wagon the horses had already caught the scent of blood and were skittish. Nearby peasants moved away quickly.
Erik’s archers took out another four guards as the rest grabbed shields and weapons from the wagon. Two from the front grabbed the reins just as the horses bolted. Only two with shields made it onto the wagon to guard their fellow soldiers. The horses trampled two more.
Erik let loose his final trick. Spears had been laid across the ground, and were quickly brought upwards as the horses approached. They had no time to slow before the sharp wood pierced their bodies and brought the cart crashing into them. The broken and bleeding horses screamed into the morning, and Erik saw Alkorn hit his head against the wagon.
Erik’s soldiers quickly dispatched the remaining guards and took axes to the wooden cart to free the general.
They turned back, and headed towards the next checkpoint. Mages faithful to Debra would soon be after them.