ALSO BY STEVEN PINKER
Language Learnability and Language Development
Learnability and Cognition
The Language Instinct
How the Mind Works
Words and Rules
The Blank Slate
The Stuff of Thought
The Better Angels of Our Nature
Language, Cognition, and Human Nature: Selected Articles
The Sense of Style
EDITED BY STEVEN PINKER
Visual Cognition
Connections and Symbols (with Jacques Mehler)
Lexical and Conceptual Semantics (with Beth Levin)
The Best American Science and Nature Writing 2004
VIKING
An imprint of Penguin Random House LLC
375 Hudson Street
New York, New York 10014
penguin.com
Copyright © 2018 by Steven Pinker
Penguin supports copyright. Copyright fuels creativity, encourages diverse voices, promotes free speech, and creates a vibrant culture. Thank you for buying an authorized edition of this book and for complying with copyright laws by not reproducing, scanning, or distributing any part of it in any form without permission. You are supporting writers and allowing Penguin to continue to publish books for every reader.
Charts rendered by Ilavenil Subbiah
ISBN 9780525427575 (hardcover)
ISBN 9780698177888 (ebook)
ISBN 9780525559023 (international edition)
Version_1
TO
Harry Pinker (1928–2015)
optimist
Solomon Lopez (2017– )
and the 22nd century
Those who are governed by reason desire nothing for themselves which they do not also desire for the rest of humankind.
—Baruch Spinoza
Everything that is not forbidden by laws of nature is achievable, given the right knowledge.
—David Deutsch
CONTENTS
ALSO BY STEVEN PINKER
TITLE PAGE
COPYRIGHT
DEDICATION
EPIGRAPH
LIST OF FIGURES
PREFACE
PART I: ENLIGHTENMENT
CHAPTER 1. DARE TO UNDERSTAND!
CHAPTER 2. ENTRO, EVO, INFO
CHAPTER 3. COUNTER-ENLIGHTENMENTS
PART II: PROGRESS
CHAPTER 4. PROGRESSOPHOBIA
CHAPTER 5. LIFE
CHAPTER 6. HEALTH
CHAPTER 7. SUSTENANCE
CHAPTER 8. WEALTH
CHAPTER 9. INEQUALITY
CHAPTER 10. THE ENVIRONMENT
CHAPTER 11. PEACE
CHAPTER 12. SAFETY
CHAPTER 13. TERRORISM
CHAPTER 14. DEMOCRACY
CHAPTER 15. EQUAL RIGHTS
CHAPTER 16. KNOWLEDGE
CHAPTER 17. QUALITY OF LIFE
CHAPTER 18. HAPPINESS
CHAPTER 19. EXISTENTIAL THREATS
CHAPTER 20. THE FUTURE OF PROGRESS
PART III: REASON, SCIENCE, AND HUMANISM
CHAPTER 21. REASON
CHAPTER 22. SCIENCE
CHAPTER 23. HUMANISM
NOTES
REFERENCES
INDEX
LIST OF FIGURES
4-1: Tone of the news, 1945–2010
5-1: Life expectancy, 1771–2015
5-2: Child mortality, 1751–2013
5-3: Maternal mortality, 1751–2013
5-4: Life expectancy, UK, 1701–2013
6-1: Childhood deaths from infectious disease, 2000–2013
7-1: Calories, 1700–2013
7-2: Childhood stunting, 1966–2014
7-3: Undernourishment, 1970–2015
7-4: Famine deaths, 1860–2016
8-1: Gross World Product, 1–2015
8-2: GDP per capita, 1600–2015
8-3: World income distribution, 1800, 1975, and 2015
8-4: Extreme poverty (proportion), 1820–2015
8-5: Extreme poverty (number), 1820–2015
9-1: International inequality, 1820–2013
9-2: Global inequality, 1820–2011
9-3: Inequality, UK and US, 1688–2013
9-4: Social spending, OECD countries, 1880–2016
9-5: Income gains, 1988–2008
9-6: Poverty, US, 1960–2016
10-1: Population and population growth, 1750–2015 and projected to 2100
10-2: Sustainability, 1955–2109
10-3: Pollution, energy, and growth, US, 1970–2015
10-4: Deforestation, 1700–2010
10-5: Oil spills, 1970–2016
10-6: Protected areas, 1990–2014
10-7: Carbon intensity (CO2 emissions per dollar of GDP), 1820–2014
10-8: CO2 emissions, 1960–2015
11-1: Great power war, 1500–2015
11-2: Battle deaths, 1946–2016
11-3: Genocide deaths, 1956–2016
12-1: Homicide deaths, Western Europe, US, and Mexico, 1300–2015
12-2: Homicide deaths, 1967–2015
12-3: Motor vehicle accident deaths, US, 1921–2015
12-4: Pedestrian deaths, US, 1927–2015
12-5: Plane crash deaths, 1970–2015
12-6: Deaths from falls, fire, drowning, and poison, US, 1903–2014
12-7: Occupational accident deaths, US, 1913–2015
12-8: Natural disaster deaths, 1900–2015
12-9: Lightning strike deaths, US, 1900–2015
13-1: Terrorism deaths, 1970–2015
14-1: Democracy versus autocracy, 1800–2015
14-2: Human rights, 1949–2014
14-3: Death penalty abolitions, 1863–2016
14-4: Executions, US, 1780–2016
15-1: Racist, sexist, and homophobic opinions, US, 1987–2012
15-2: Racist, sexist, and homophobic Web searches, US, 2004–2017
15-3: Hate crimes, US, 1996–2015
15-4: Rape and domestic violence, US, 1993–2014
15-5: Decriminalization of homosexuality, 1791–2016
15-6: Liberal values across time and generations, developed countries, 1980–2005
15-7: Liberal values across time (extrapolated), world’s culture zones, 1960–2006
15-8: Victimization of children, US, 1993–2012
15-9: Child labor, 1850–2012
16-1: Literacy, 1475–2010
16-2: Basic education, 1820–2010
16-3: Years of schooling, 1870–2010
16-4: Female literacy, 1750–2014
16-5: IQ gains, 1909–2013
16-6: Global well-being, 1820–2015
17-1: Work hours, Western Europe and US, 1870–2000
17-2: Retirement, US, 1880–2010
17-3: Utilities, appliances, and housework, US, 1900–2015
17-4: Cost of light, England, 1300–2006
17-5: Spending on necessities, US, 1929–2016
17-6: Leisure time, US, 1965–2015
17-7: Cost of air travel, US, 1979–2015
17-8: International tourism, 1995–2015
18-1: Life satisfaction and income, 2006
18-2: Loneliness, US students, 1978–2011
18-3: Suicide, England, Switzerland, and US, 1860–2014
18-4: Happiness and excitement, US, 1972–2016
19-1: Nuc
lear weapons, 1945–2015
20-1: Populist support across generations, 2016
PREFACE
The second half of the second decade of the third millennium would not seem to be an auspicious time to publish a book on the historical sweep of progress and its causes. At the time of this writing, my country is led by people with a dark vision of the current moment: “mothers and children trapped in poverty . . . an education system which leaves our young and beautiful students deprived of all knowledge . . . and the crime, and the gangs, and the drugs that have stolen too many lives.” We are in an “outright war” that is “expanding and metastasizing.” The blame for this nightmare may be placed on a “global power structure” that has eroded “the underlying spiritual and moral foundations of Christianity.”1
In the pages that follow, I will show that this bleak assessment of the state of the world is wrong. And not just a little wrong—wrong wrong, flat-earth wrong, couldn’t-be-more-wrong. But this book is not about the forty-fifth president of the United States and his advisors. It was conceived some years before Donald Trump announced his candidacy, and I hope it will outlast his administration by many more. The ideas that prepared the ground for his election are in fact widely shared among intellectuals and laypeople, on both the left and the right. They include pessimism about the way the world is heading, cynicism about the institutions of modernity, and an inability to conceive of a higher purpose in anything other than religion. I will present a different understanding of the world, grounded in fact and inspired by the ideals of the Enlightenment: reason, science, humanism, and progress. Enlightenment ideals, I hope to show, are timeless, but they have never been more relevant than they are right now.
* * *
The sociologist Robert Merton identified Communalism as a cardinal scientific virtue, together with Universalism, Disinterestedness, and Organized Skepticism: CUDOS.2 Kudos indeed goes to the many scientists who shared their data in a communal spirit and responded to my queries thoroughly and swiftly. First among these is Max Roser, proprietor of the mind-expanding Our World in Data Web site, whose insight and generosity were indispensable to many discussions in part II, the section on progress. I am grateful as well to Marian Tupy of HumanProgress and to Ola Rosling and Hans Rosling of Gapminder, two other invaluable resources for understanding the state of humanity. Hans was an inspiration, and his death in 2017 a tragedy for those who are committed to reason, science, humanism, and progress.
My gratitude goes as well to the other data scientists I pestered and to the institutions that collect and maintain their data: Karlyn Bowman, Daniel Cox (PRRI), Tamar Epner (Social Progress Index), Christopher Fariss, Chelsea Follett (HumanProgress), Andrew Gelman, Yair Ghitza, April Ingram (Science Heroes), Jill Janocha (Bureau of Labor Statistics), Gayle Kelch (US Fire Administration/FEMA), Alaina Kolosh (National Safety Council), Kalev Leetaru (Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone), Monty Marshall (Polity Project), Bruce Meyer, Branko Milanović (World Bank), Robert Muggah (Homicide Monitor), Pippa Norris (World Values Survey), Thomas Olshanski (US Fire Administration/FEMA), Amy Pearce (Science Heroes), Mark Perry, Therese Pettersson (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), Leandro Prados de la Escosura, Stephen Radelet, Auke Rijpma (OECD Clio Infra), Hannah Ritchie (Our World in Data), Seth Stephens-Davidowitz (Google Trends), James X. Sullivan, Sam Taub (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), Kyla Thomas, Jennifer Truman (Bureau of Justice Statistics), Jean Twenge, Bas van Leeuwen (OECD Clio Infra), Carlos Vilalta, Christian Welzel (World Values Survey), Justin Wolfers, and Billy Woodward (Science Heroes).
David Deutsch, Rebecca Newberger Goldstein, Kevin Kelly, John Mueller, Roslyn Pinker, Max Roser, and Bruce Schneier read a draft of the entire manuscript and offered invaluable advice. I also profited from comments by experts who read chapters or excerpts, including Scott Aronson, Leda Cosmides, Jeremy England, Paul Ewald, Joshua Goldstein, A. C. Grayling, Joshua Greene, Cesar Hidalgo, Jodie Jackson, Lawrence Krauss, Branko Milanović, Robert Muggah, Jason Nemirow, Matthew Nock, Ted Nordhaus, Anthony Pagden, Robert Pinker, Susan Pinker, Stephen Radelet, Peter Scoblic, Martin Seligman, Michael Shellenberger, and Christian Welzel.
Other friends and colleagues answered questions or made important suggestions, including Charleen Adams, Rosalind Arden, Andrew Balmford, Nicolas Baumard, Brian Boutwell, Stewart Brand, David Byrne, Richard Dawkins, Daniel Dennett, Gregg Easterbrook, Emily-Rose Eastop, Nils Petter Gleditsch, Jennifer Jacquet, Barry Latzer, Mark Lilla, Karen Long, Andrew Mack, Michael McCullough, Heiner Rindermann, Jim Rossi, Scott Sagan, Sally Satel, and Michael Shermer. Special thanks go to my Harvard colleagues Mahzarin Banaji, Mercè Crosas, James Engell, Daniel Gilbert, Richard McNally, Kathryn Sikkink, and Lawrence Summers.
I thank Rhea Howard and Luz Lopez for their heroic efforts in obtaining, analyzing, and plotting data, and Keehup Yong for several regression analyses. I thank as well Ilavenil Subbiah for designing the elegant graphs and for her suggestions on form and substance.
I am deeply grateful to my editors, Wendy Wolf and Thomas Penn, and to my literary agent, John Brockman, for their guidance and encouragement throughout the project. Katya Rice has now copyedited eight of my books, and I have learned and profited from her handiwork every time.
Special thanks go to my family: Roslyn, Susan, Martin, Eva, Carl, Eric, Robert, Kris, Jack, David, Yael, Solomon, Danielle, and most of all Rebecca, my teacher and partner in appreciating the ideals of the Enlightenment.
PART I
ENLIGHTENMENT
The common sense of the eighteenth century, its grasp of the obvious facts of human suffering, and of the obvious demands of human nature, acted on the world like a bath of moral cleansing.
—Alfred North Whitehead
In the course of several decades giving public lectures on language, mind, and human nature, I have been asked some mighty strange questions. Which is the best language? Are clams and oysters conscious? When will I be able to upload my mind to the Internet? Is obesity a form of violence?
But the most arresting question I have ever fielded followed a talk in which I explained the commonplace among scientists that mental life consists of patterns of activity in the tissues of the brain. A student in the audience raised her hand and asked me:
“Why should I live?”
The student’s ingenuous tone made it clear that she was neither suicidal nor sarcastic but genuinely curious about how to find meaning and purpose if traditional religious beliefs about an immortal soul are undermined by our best science. My policy is that there is no such thing as a stupid question, and to the surprise of the student, the audience, and most of all myself, I mustered a reasonably creditable answer. What I recall saying—embellished, to be sure, by the distortions of memory and l’esprit de l’escalier, the wit of the staircase—went something like this:
In the very act of asking that question, you are seeking reasons for your convictions, and so you are committed to reason as the means to discover and justify what is important to you. And there are so many reasons to live!
As a sentient being, you have the potential to flourish. You can refine your faculty of reason itself by learning and debating. You can seek explanations of the natural world through science, and insight into the human condition through the arts and humanities. You can make the most of your capacity for pleasure and satisfaction, which allowed your ancestors to thrive and thereby allowed you to exist. You can appreciate the beauty and richness of the natural and cultural world. As the heir to billions of years of life perpetuating itself, you can perpetuate life in turn. You have been endowed with a sense of sympathy—the ability to like, love, respect, help, and show kindness—and you can enjoy the gift of mutual benevolence with friends, family, and colleagues.
And because reason tells you that none of this is particular to you, you have the responsibility to provide to others what you expect for yourself. You can foster the welfare of other sentient beings by enhancing li
fe, health, knowledge, freedom, abundance, safety, beauty, and peace. History shows that when we sympathize with others and apply our ingenuity to improving the human condition, we can make progress in doing so, and you can help to continue that progress.
Explaining the meaning of life is not in the usual job description of a professor of cognitive science, and I would not have had the gall to take up her question if the answer depended on my arcane technical knowledge or my dubious personal wisdom. But I knew I was channeling a body of beliefs and values that had taken shape more than two centuries before me and that are now more relevant than ever: the ideals of the Enlightenment.
The Enlightenment principle that we can apply reason and sympathy to enhance human flourishing may seem obvious, trite, old-fashioned. I wrote this book because I have come to realize that it is not. More than ever, the ideals of reason, science, humanism, and progress need a wholehearted defense. We take its gifts for granted: newborns who will live more than eight decades, markets overflowing with food, clean water that appears with a flick of a finger and waste that disappears with another, pills that erase a painful infection, sons who are not sent off to war, daughters who can walk the streets in safety, critics of the powerful who are not jailed or shot, the world’s knowledge and culture available in a shirt pocket. But these are human accomplishments, not cosmic birthrights. In the memories of many readers of this book—and in the experience of those in less fortunate parts of the world—war, scarcity, disease, ignorance, and lethal menace are a natural part of existence. We know that countries can slide back into these primitive conditions, and so we ignore the achievements of the Enlightenment at our peril.
In the years since I took the young woman’s question, I have often been reminded of the need to restate the ideals of the Enlightenment (also called humanism, the open society, and cosmopolitan or classical liberalism). It’s not just that questions like hers regularly appear in my inbox. (“Dear Professor Pinker, What advice do you have for someone who has taken ideas in your books and science to heart, and sees himself as a collection of atoms? A machine with a limited scope of intelligence, sprung out of selfish genes, inhabiting spacetime?”) It’s also that an obliviousness to the scope of human progress can lead to symptoms that are worse than existential angst. It can make people cynical about the Enlightenment-inspired institutions that are securing this progress, such as liberal democracy and organizations of international cooperation, and turn them toward atavistic alternatives.